Container freight rates tracking 10% ahead of last year

According to the latest Shanghai Containerised Freight Index figures from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, average container rates are expected to decrease 3% to $762/teu, while the China Containerised Freight Index was stable at $801/teu, “implying container freight rates ex-China are bottoming out at substantially higher levels post Chinese New Year than last year”, according to David Kerstens, equity analyst at Jefferies. 

 “As a result, the SCFI is 10% higher, year to date, while the CCFI is tracking 5% ahead of last year, which should be positive for container liner earnings momentum.”

According to the most recent World Container Index, assessed by Drewry, the composite index decreased 0.3% last week or $4 to reach $1,330.29 per 40ft container, but remains 12.8% up as compared with same period of 2018. 

Freight rates on Shanghai-Rotterdam dropped $48 to $1,312 for a 40ft container. Similarly, rates fell $12 and stood at $1,474 per feu on Shanghai-Genoa head-haul leg. 

However, with the imposition of a General Rates Increase, freight rates on Rotterdam-New York grew $306 to $2,302 for a 40ft box.

The average composite index of the WCI for the year to date is US $1,537/40ft container, which is $58 higher than the five-year average of $1,479/40ft container. 

However, Drewry expects that the rates may fall this week, as indicated by the SCFI and CCFI data.

Forwarders have been reporting rising demand for container slots out of China, with one source predicting ocean freight rates could continue to make gains on the Asia-Europe trade through May if carriers continue to ration capacity. 

Spot freight rates on the Shanghai-Rotterdam trade rose 2% that week and were 14% higher than a year earlier, according to the latest World Container Index as assessed by Drewry.

Although container shipping analysts contacted by Lloyd’s List are hesitant to read too much into latest gains at this early stage, they agree there is a sizeable amount of data now available hinting that demand fundamentals on the trade could be improving. 

Chinese export activity reawakened in March, while forward manufacturing export order indicators are also strong.

Source: Lloyd’s List